Sports betting is a fun way to enjoy your favorite sports, but in order to make it profitable over the long term, you need more than just luck or intuition. The key to long-term success then is value sports betting — finding opportunities where the odds are in your favour and coming away with long-term profits, even if bets such as betting on an underdog lose every once in a while. In this article, we will explain what value sports betting is, the role it plays in ensuring long term profitability and provide an insight into how professional sports bettors spot and exploit these opportunities with Super Bowl history being the seasoning.
What is Value Sports Betting?
Value betting is the type of betting because you are searching for an 2 Aug 2018 If this sounds familiar, many winning sports bettors consider value propositions when they place wagers. Value betting in basic terms, is when the odds are slightly wrong against you and you have an edge over the sportsbook.
To see why, consider an example: If a team has a 50 percent chance of winning, the odds should reflect that probability. When value betting, you are trying to find situations where the odds on offer are more than they should be based on the actual probability of that event occurring. For example, offering +200 on a team with 50% chances is valuable because those implied odds are 33%, which is less than the actual probability.
What value sports betting essentially comes down to is identifying and wagering on these opportunities that offer better odds than the probability of a particular outcome. The approach pays off in the long run — much like betting on winners does or if you bet with your heart.
Why Being a Value Bettor is Key to Long-Term Success.
For sustained results in sports gambling, you need to stay consistent. Sure, you might play a hunch or go with the crowd and sometimes win in the short run — but chances are, if you keep it up long enough, that house edge will eventually wear you down. And that is where value sports betting comes in — it gives you the opportunity to pick and choose potential outcomes based on an available probability, to turn the odds into one that’s well in your favor.
The sportsbook sets the odds based on what they think the probability of a particular outcome is, however those odds can be influenced by so many different factors like public perception, big bets sizes and even the bookmaker’s need to balance his action on both sides. Although there may not be perfect alignment between the odds and true probability in all cases, pro bettors spot these differential margins and respond accordingly.
In the long term, value betting is the key to making sports betting into a viable investment. By betting nothing but “good” bets, you allow yourself to win even if any one game goes against you.
How Sharps Find Value When Betting on Sports
Vegas sports sharps have developed a skill for identifying line value and betting opportunities by pouring through stats, looking at team tendencies and lineup changes, along with factors such as the weather, injuries, psychological implications of the games etc. Here are the key strategies they employ:
1. Extensive Research and Data Analysis:
With countless hours spent assessing team performance, injuries, individual player statistics, and trends from years prior. This work allows them to compute the actual probability of an outcome, and compare this to the odds published by sportsbook. If the odds are higher than the estimated probability, it’s a value bet.
2. Interpreting Market Movement:
Sportsbook lines can be affected by the betting public. If many bettors wager on one team, the sportsbook might change the odds to draw itself less dopamine in case that team wins. So-called professional bettors monitor such movements to make sure no opportunities are slipping through the cracks when it comes to bets on a certain game.
3. Betting Against the Public:
The public tends to bet on their favorite teams or players, and sportsbooks are aware of that. And as a result, favorites can be overrated kicks. Professionals are able to exploit this, with long-shot underdogs often being undervalued if they’re as likely (or more) than the odds would suggest to pull off an upset.
4. Utilizing Statistical Models:
There are many professional gamblers who use sophisticated statistical models and betting algorithms to predict one game. These models are based on computer simulations of games using players’ performance, adjusted to various circumstances and other relevant reasons. Professionals pick apart betting odds by ensuring that their predictions deviate from those of the model and placing bets where is a contradiction.
Super Bowl Sample: Value Betting in the World of Sports Betting at Work
The Super Bowl is one of the largest sports events in the world, and that has provided some memorable value plays over its history. Here are a couple of examples of when the value hunters scored big:
Super Bowl LI (2017): New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
In this remarkable Super Bowl the New England Patriots were 25 points behind at one stage, but then rose again to triumph 34-28 in overtime. But professional gamblers who knew about value sports betting viewed this as an opportunity. Patriots were a great price given how bad the odds went out on them while they were behind, it was a classic case of mispriced odds. Perception: Falcons Leading Though the public thought that the game was in control, for contrarian bettors there were still value to be had with a team like the Patriots, who at this point have a veteran-led roster and a quarterback in Tom Brady who has led some of the biggest comebacks in NFL history. For the Level 5 players, it was a huge resource while taking on that risk.
Super Bowl XLII (2008): New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
One of the best instances of value for sports betting was in Super Bowl XLII when the New York Giants upset the heavily favored New England Patriots. The Patriots were unbeaten in that season, and the broader betting public had them continuing on a dominant roll. But professional bettors who studied the Giants’ defense and the Patriots’ occasional weaknesses found value in betting the underdog Giants. » MORE: Betting: Giants complete one of top upsets in Super Bowl historyIt was an upset made for those who saw value in their chances.
Conclusion: Master Value Sports Betting to Profit Regularly
The best way to hammer your bets with sports betting in high-value markets is to approach the action properly. Professional bettors consistently find value and mismatch in the odds by searching for opportunities in which they believe the lines are mispriced. Whether you are a newbie or an experienced bettor, you can learn how to spot value and get better over time.
Sports betting is not about luck or trying to choose who the favorites will be, it’s about determining where you can find an edge and profit from your investment on that game. Value Sports Betting If you can avoid engaging in emotional, biased betting and concentrate on value sports bets instead, your prospects of long-term profit will be significantly better. Regardless of whether you research deeply, have the ability to identify market movements or you work on statistical models, learning how to value bet will help ensure your place in the world of sports betting.